Friday, April 27, 2012

Peru, three other countries drive infrastructure investment in Latin America



Peru is one of the four countries that are driving infrastructure investment in Latin America, transforming the position of the region in the global economy.

According to a report by Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm CG/LA Infrastructure, nearly 70% of the region's investment will go into Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Colombia.

Brazil leads the pack with more than $60 billion in projects; Mexico is second with $28.3 billion; Peru comes in a surprising third at $24.2 billion; and Colombia is at $23.5 billion.

The region is riding a 10 year growth spurt, with Peru's growth during this period averaging greater than 5% per year.

Sector concentration is also significant. In previous years projects tended to cluster around resource extraction, but in 2012 there is a clear transition to improving overall economic opportunity.

The clear sector leader is transportation, with over $90 billion in project opportunities - urban mass transit leads at $22 billion, followed closely by highways at $21.7 billion.

The natural gas revolution is a driving force in Latin American infrastructure, with just under $40 billion in project opportunities. Power generation is the third strongest category, at $26 billion - with nearly $16 billion in hydropower opportunities. Nearly all projects present private investment opportunities, including nearly 20 P3 projects. (Andina - South America News)  

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Peru’s Stealthy Advance Toward a Modern Economy


Enrique Krauze


Something extraordinary is happening in Peru.

There has been considerable improvement in the economy and in the stability of political life. And the country is experiencing strong -- though still limited -- progress in its social programs. But above and beyond these achievements, Peruvians are changing the painful perception they have long had of themselves and their country’s place in the world; they are altering the country’s mentality, that set of conceptions and practices known as its “customs” (las costumbres).

“Time has created customs with the same patience and slow pace as the growth of mountains,” wrote the great Spanish novelist Benito Perez Galdos.

If there is a country that confirms this aphorism, it is the mountainous and hierarchically traditional Peru. When I first went there in 1979, I noticed how Peruvians ridiculed themselves: “The modern Inca is inca-pable,” they would pun. They displayed a nostalgia for an archaic Inca Eden destroyed by the Spanish Conquest. They also despaired at the backwardness of the Andean region compared with the coast, the poverty and submissiveness of the Indian majority, the omnipresence (in language, social treatment, political disputes) of fierce ethnic rancor, and even their geographic remoteness from Europe and the U.S., the true centers of power and development.

Bloody Conquest

I remember walking in Cuzco, past the colonial churches whose beautifully fitted masonry was built on the visible foundations of Inca temples; clear architectural emblems of the bloody conquest of Peru. It was a golden twilight and I heard an Indian melody being played on an Andean flute. It was probably a Quechua love song, but it seemed the saddest music I had ever heard.

I next visited in 1990. The country had passed through various military regimes and was now mired in a careless populism that had almost destroyed the economy. And it was wracked by the savage uprising of the Shining Path, the Maoist guerrilla group that inflicted a parade of horrors. I saw an army of child beggars flooding the commercial zones of Lima, soldiers patrolling the streets -- alert to the next terrorist outrage, kidnapping or assassination -- and speculators in the streets waving handfuls of devalued currency. The Peruvian central bank had exhausted its reserves. In 1989, inflation had risen to 2,600 percent and gross national product had fallen 15 percent.

The novelist Mario Vargas Llosa was running for president. He advocated a program of economic modernization to open the frontiers to trade and expand the free market. In a bitter campaign, the future Nobel laureate was defeated by Alberto Fujimori (a loss that would wind up being greatly to the benefit of world literature.) Many (especially poorer) Peruvians were convinced that Vargas Llosa’s social proposals were harmful, but Fujimori incorporated a number of them into his economic program. Fujimori had a measure of success in the early years of his first term. Then his presidency, besieged and degraded by the brutal struggle against the Shining Path, degenerated into internal violence and rampant corruption. He defeated the guerrillas, yet the many abuses of his dictatorial government eventually led to his conviction by a Peruvian court and imprisonment.

But the movement toward economic modernization (and the defeat of the Shining Path) seems, in retrospect, to mark the beginning of Peru’s ascent. Good omens appeared amid the country’s troubles. First, there was the election of President Alejandro Toledo, of Indian origins and a graduate of Stanford University, whose biography in itself seems to represent the beginning of reconciliation between the past, violently divided factions of Peruvian history.

‘State of Law’

Then, there was a populist president (Alan Garcia) who, in his second term, recognized his previous economic errors and chose the road of modernization. He was followed by the current president, Ollanta Humala, who had once led an abortive attempt at a leftist military coup but now considers “the divisions of left and right to be obsolete,” defends the “state of law” and is following not the path of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez but the highly successful Brazilian road of democracy championed by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his presidential successor, Dilma Rousseff, combining a modernized economy with strong social commitment.

Peru’s problems continue to be immense, but they are being actively confronted. There is, of course, the menace of the drug trade, which hangs like a dark cloud over much of Latin America. And the country has a long backlog of deficits in infrastructure, housing, basic services, education and fair competition. But focused programs of social aid now exist, and the Humala government has created a Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion meant to supervise, coordinate and maintain their integrity. According to the Peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance, the absolute poverty rate is being reduced and has already been shrinking over the past 10 years (to 31 percent from 53 percent -- though it still stands at 54 percent in rural areas). The objective is to reduce this rate to 15 percent by 2020.

At the same time, a modernizing economy and business- friendly environment is being maintained, and only Chile is considered a more hospitable environment for investment in the region.

Globalization has transformed the economic geography of Peru. “We’re a China in miniature,” said the intellectual Alfredo Barnechea, noting the impressive migration from the poverty-plagued Andean regions to the coastal cities, where employment has grown 37 percent, due to an expansion of construction and consumption. China has become a major market for Peruvian raw materials, receiving 15 percent of total exports. With an inflation rate forecast to be only 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent this year, the country is now growing by about 6 percent per year, has quintupled its external investments and boosted its exports sixfold. Its economic growth has been favorably compared to Singapore, China and South Korea.

A few weeks ago, I visited the Sacred Valley near the ancient Inca city of Machu Picchu and stood by the crystal-clear waters of the Vilcanota River. The streets of its villages were clean and well-kept. The signs of economic improvement were everywhere. I looked at the striking array of ancient agricultural terraces on the mountain slopes. They were sculpted into the mountains six centuries ago by Inca peasants and engineers, along with astronomical observatories and temples to their gods.

Today, the modern Peruvians, the new Incas, are performing their own miracles of national construction, moving new mountains for the benefit of the present and the future.

By Enrique Krauze
(Enrique Krauze, the author of “Mexico: Biography of Power” and “Redeemers: Ideas and Power in Latin America,” is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. This article was translated from the Spanish by Hank Heifetz.)

To contact the writer of this article: Enrique Krauze at ekrauze@prodigy.net.mx
To contact the editor responsible for this article: Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net

Monday, April 23, 2012

Fitch: Peru port has regional advantages, global challenges


Puerto de Paita - Perú


Fitch Ratings believes that a port in Peru stands to benefit from an array of local advantages but faces some global challenges.

Terminales Potruarios Euroandinos Paita S.A. (Port of Paita) recently issued US$110 million senior secured notes and plans to use the note proceeds to dredge the port, build a mooring point, buy cranes, purchase other handling equipment, and partially fund reserves.

The port currently handles over 150,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). It primarily exports fish and agricultural products and imports fertilizers and grains. It is approximately 640 miles (1,030 kilometers) from Lima.

Port of Paita's location contributes to its relatively concentrated exports. The port is distant to major economic centers, with limited infrastructure access. However, activities at the port are likely to benefit from ongoing infrastructure developments in the region.

Los Olmos water diversion and irrigation projects are expected to diversify its existing agricultural product base. Additionally, the connection to the Brazilian Amazon via the IIRSA highway may augment the port's activities.

As a second port of call, volume volatility could be partially mitigated with stronger contractual agreements with main counterparties. Fitch believes the additional capacity may better position the port to meet rising export activities in a growing economy.

Port of Paita also faces some global challenges given that most of its fish exports are bound for Asia. A slowdown in China's consumption, its largest fish byproduct market, could put pressure on export growth. (Andina - South America News)

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Peru's president says mining project viable



Peru's president says the country's biggest mining project, which has been on hold due to protests, is viable and will meet environmental requirements.

President Ollanta Humala said on Friday that residents near the Conga gold- and copper-mining project would be ensured an ample water supply.

Protesters backed by the regional governor say they fear the mine will harm their water supplies. 

The mine is majority owned by U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp.

Humala asked that the mine not use two of four lakes that were originally going to be destroyed as part of the mining operation. 

That was a recommendation made by experts.

He says the project should provide more water to local reservoirs and that his government will invest about $1.8 billion in infrastructure in the northern region of Cajamarca. (Associated press)


Friday, April 20, 2012

Price Controls Keep Venezuela Cupboards Bare


Customers lined up at 6:30 a.m. outside a government-subsidized store in the Santa Rosalía neighborhood for a chance to get whatever groceries were available.


By 6:30 a.m., a full hour and a half before the store would open, about two dozen people were already in line. They waited patiently, not for the latest iPhone, but for something far more basic: groceries.

 “Whatever I can get,” said Katherine Huga, 23, a mother of two, describing her shopping list. She gave a shrug of resignation. “You buy what they have.”

Venezuela is one of the world’s top oil producers at a time of soaring energy prices, yet shortages of staples like milk, meat and toilet paper are a chronic part of life here, often turning grocery shopping into a hit or miss proposition.

Some residents arrange their calendars around the once-a-week deliveries made to government-subsidized stores like this one, lining up before dawn to buy a single frozen chicken before the stock runs out. Or a couple of bags of flour. Or a bottle of cooking oil.

The shortages affect both the poor and the well-off, in surprising ways. A supermarket in the upscale La Castellana neighborhood recently had plenty of chicken and cheese — even quail eggs — but not a single roll of toilet paper. Only a few bags of coffee remained on a bottom shelf.

Asked where a shopper could get milk on a day when that, too, was out of stock, a manager said with sarcasm, “At Chávez’s house.”

At the heart of the debate is President Hugo Chávez’s socialist-inspired government, which imposes strict price controls that are intended to make a range of foods and other goods more affordable for the poor. They are often the very products that are the hardest to find.

“Venezuela is too rich a country to have this,” Nery Reyes, 55, a restaurant worker, said outside a government-subsidized store in the working-class Santa Rosalía neighborhood. “I’m wasting my day here standing in line to buy one chicken and some rice.”

Venezuela was long one of the most prosperous countries in the region, with sophisticated manufacturing, vibrant agriculture and strong businesses, making it hard for many residents to accept such widespread scarcities. But amid the prosperity, the gap between rich and poor was extreme, a problem that Mr. Chávez and his ministers say they are trying to eliminate.

They blame unfettered capitalism for the country’s economic ills and argue that controls are needed to keep prices in check in a country where inflation rose to 27.6 percent last year, one of the highest rates in the world. They say companies cause shortages on purpose, holding products off the market to push up prices. This month, the government required price cuts on fruit juice, toothpaste, disposable diapers and more than a dozen other products.

“We are not asking them to lose money, just that they make money in a rational way, that they don’t rob the people,” Mr. Chávez said recently.

But many economists call it a classic case of a government causing a problem rather than solving it. Prices are set so low, they say, that companies and producers cannot make a profit. So farmers grow less food, manufacturers cut back production and retailers stock less inventory. Moreover, some of the shortages are in industries, like dairy and coffee, where the government has seized private companies and is now running them, saying it is in the national interest.

In January, according to a scarcity index compiled by the Central Bank of Venezuela, the difficulty of finding basic goods on store shelves was at its worst level since 2008. While that measure has eased considerably, many products can still be hard to come by.

Datanálisis, a polling firm that regularly tracks scarcities, said that powdered milk, a staple here, could not be found in 42 percent of the stores its researchers visited in early March. Liquid milk can be even harder to find.

Other products in short supply last month, according to Datanálisis, included beef, chicken, vegetable oil and sugar. The polling firm also says that the problem is most extreme in the government-subsidized stores that were created to provide affordable food to the poor.

But with inflation so crippling, many shoppers at those stores said the inconvenience was worth it.

“It’s an enormous help,” said Ana Lozano, 62, a retiree who takes in ironing to supplement her pension, who was waiting outside the Santa Rosalía grocery. “That’s why there’s such a long line.”

The government appears keenly aware of the twin threats of shortages and inflation as it prepares for the October election in which Mr. Chávez is seeking a new six-year term. The price controls have been defended in government advertisements and accompanied by repeated threats from Mr. Chávez to nationalize any company that cannot keep its products on the market. (William Neuman - The New York Times)

Argentina Seeks Petrobras Investment Amid License Impasse


Argentina asked Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) to almost double its share of the country’s oil market and increase business with nationalized YPF SA (YPFD) as the Brazilian company negotiates to revert the cancellation of a license at Neuquen province. 

Argentine Planning Minister Julio de Vido asked Petrobras to boost its market share to 15 percent from 8 percent, Brazilian Energy Minister Edison Lobao told reporters after a meeting with De Vido and Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Maria das Gracas Foster in Brasilia today. 

The Rio de Janeiro-based state-run producer will match $500 million of 2011 investments in Argentina this year and will seek to boost spending in the country as much as possible, Lobao said. “To the extent that we can, we will meet the requests from Argentina,” Lobao said. “We have no reason to doubt the Argentine government.” 

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner seized control of YPF from Spain’s Repsol YPF SA (REP) this week after several provinces revoked the company’s oil licenses to pressure for increased investment and production. Petrobras had one of its licenses in Neuquen canceled earlier this month. “The challenge for Petrobras and YPF is to advance business together,” De Vido, who was put in charge of YPF, replacing Chief Executive Officer Sebastian Eskenazi, said after the meeting. “We are optimistic there will be a solution,” he said, referring to talks between Petrobras and Neuquen province on the license cancellation. 

Foster said April 17 that Petrobras was surprised at the loss of a license in Argentina and would hold internal meetings to discuss its investments in the country. 

Chevron, Exxon Argentina will also hold talks next week with Chevron Corp. (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) to discuss investments in the country, De Vido said. 

De Vido said his role as head of YPF lasts for 30 days and the company will have professional management. 

Argentina took control of YPF as the government seeks to curb declining oil production after reserves fell 18 percent between 1998 and 2010, according to data compiled by the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute. 

YPF is the largest oil producer in the country, with about 34 percent of output, Energy Secretariat data show. Repsol Chairman Antonio Brufau this week called the expropriation of the company’s 51 percent stake in YPF illegal and estimated Repsol’s potential loss at 5.7 billion euros ($7.5 billion). 

YPF’s market value fell by more than half to 31.9 billion pesos ($7.2 billion) yesterday from a high this year of 74.1 billion pesos on Jan. 23, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shares have dropped 55 percent since speculation of a takeover first emerged on Jan. 29. They were up 1.1 percent from yesterday at 81.90 pesos at 1:19 p.m. in Buenos Aires. 

To contact the reporters on this story: Raymond Colitt in Brasilia Newsroom at rcolitt@bloomberg.net; Rodrigo Orihuela in Rio de Janeiro at rorihuela@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Spain Vows Argentina Trade War as Repsol Seeks $10.5 Billion


Spain vowed to retaliate against Argentina’s exporters and energy supplies as Repsol YPF SA (REP) demanded $10.5 billion in compensation after the South American nation seized its YPF SA (YPFD) unit.

Repsol Chairman Antonio Brufau said today he will use all legal means to win full payment for losing the oil producer. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner deliberately deceived investors, executives and her own people with moves that distract voters from her nation’s economic problems, Brufau said. Repsol’s shares fell the most in seven months.

“They are going to lead the country into chaos,” Brufau said at a press conference in Madrid. “A responsible country should plan based on reality and not how they would like things to be.”

Fernandez justified the takeover by blaming Repsol for insufficient investment in new oil production that’s forcing the nation to import more energy. She may struggle to reverse that trend as investors said the moves deter them from buying Argentine assets. 

The cost to insure against an Argentine default surged the most among nations worldwide yesterday while a similar security to hedge Repsol’s risk jumped to the highest since January 2009.

Argentina needs an estimated $25 billion a year during the next 10 years to develop South America’s biggest shale fields, the Vaca Muerta, where YPF discovered reserves forecast to hold as much as 23 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Vaca Muerta Discovery

The Argentine government, which in November endorsed Repsol’s management of YPF, turned against the Spanish majority- owner after it announced the Vaca Muerta discovery in February because it didn’t want Repsol to benefit from the bonanza, Brufau said.

“Vaca Muerta is behind this, without a doubt,” he said. “We have often read that this has to belong to the state instead of being in private hands,” he said, referring to local press reports quoting Argentine officials.

Fernandez replaced YPF Chief Executive Officer Sebastian Eskenazi with Planning Minister Julio De Vido and plans to send a bill to Argentina’s Congress to take a 51 percent stake in the company.

In Madrid, Spain’s Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria pledged retaliation. “The consequences will be in the areas of diplomacy, trade, industry and energy,” Soria said in an interview on state radio station RNE today. He declined to be more specific before measures are implemented and said they will be announced in the coming days.
European Union Response
The European Union postponed a meeting with Argentine officials scheduled for this month to weigh its response to the move, European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen said. Repsol’s first option for winning compensation may be an appeal under an investment treaty between Spain and Argentina, the commission said.

“I am seriously disappointed by yesterday’s announcement,” European Commission President Jose Barroso told reporters in Brussels today. “We expect the Argentine authorities to uphold their international commitments and obligations, in particular those resulting from a bilateral agreement on investments with Spain.”

Argentina’s oil reserves fell about 18 percent from 1998 to 2010, according to the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute. Price caps on oil exports also made investments less attractive.

‘They’re Desperate’

Repsol is responsible for about 54 percent of the country’s decline in reserves and production since buying YPF in 1998, according to a copy of the Argentine bill. 

The company had a “predatory attitude” toward Argentina that warranted the takeover, it said.

Brufau challenged Argentina’s figures saying YPF’s oil reserves increased 5 percent between 2007 and 2010 compared with a 4 percent decline for the country as a whole.

The seizure of YPF won’t help investment, said Sam Zell, Chairman of Equity Group Investments.

“They’re desperate,” Zell said at the Bloomberg Link conference in Doha, Qatar. “They’re running out of options. I don’t know what they’re going to nationalize next, but I know I don’t want to be there.”

YPF lost eight potential investors in the deposits after the government withdrew financial incentives for producers and forced companies to repatriate export revenue, a person familiar with the talks said in February.

Valuations for YPF

Repsol’s 57.4 percent stake in YPF was worth 4.1 billion euros ($5.4 billion) at the end of last year, the Madrid-based company said in a regulatory statement yesterday. The company is valued at $18.3 billion according to the formula set out in its bylaws and Repsol owns 57.4 percent, Brufau said.

Repsol received two or three “good” offers for its YPF stake before it was seized by the Argentine government including one written offer valuing the company at $15 billion to $18 billion, Brufau said on a conference call with analysts today. He said he plans to use the offer documents as evidence in court hearings.

Profit Break-down

The unit accounted for 21 percent of profit and 34 percent of investment in 2011. Repsol also said it is owed 1.54 billion euros by Grupo Petersen, which was YPF’s second-biggest shareholder.

“Expropriation cases seldom go well for the party being expropriated,” said Jason Gammel, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Europe Ltd. in London. “It’s clearly a wholly negative event. It’s value destruction.”

Repsol shares lost 6.1 percent in Madrid, the most in seven months, to close at 16.42 euros while Fitch Ratings placed the BBB classification of the company’s long-term debt on negative watch.

The cost of insuring Repsol’s bonds against default with swaps soared as much as 27 percent to the highest since January 2009, according to Bloomberg data. The swaps rose as much as 85 basis points to 397 basis points, the biggest one-day jump since Oct. 22, 2008, and retreated to 348 basis points, up 12 percent.

The company’s bonds plunged, sending their extra yield compared with benchmarks to record highs. The spread on the company’s 850 million euros of 4.25 percent notes due February 2016 rose to 402 basis points more than the swap rate, from 335 basis points yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net; Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

Monday, April 16, 2012

Brazil in talks with Peru, Colombia to enter MILA


Brazil stock-exchange owner BM&FBovespa is in talks with Colombia and Peru to enter the Integrated Latin American Market, or MILA, which combines the bourses of Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Talks with the two countries are in initial phases, BM&FBovespa Chief Executive Edemir Pinto said during a visit to Chile to sign an agreement with the Santiago exchange, MarketWatch reported Friday, citing an article in Chile's Diario Financiero newspaper.

BM&FBovespa's press office declined to comment on Pinto's remarks, saying only the exchange has bilateral agreements with several countries in the region. In a statement, the Brazilian exchange said Pinto signed Thursday an agreement with the Santiago exchange to share derivative-market knowledge between the two bourses.

The two exchanges could eventually provide direct access to each other's bourses, allowing investors to trade shares listed on the other country's bourse, Diario Financiero said, citing the general manager of the Santiago exchange, Jose Antonio Martinez.

According to Diario Financiero, up to now the plan for MILA was to create a market for Spanish-speaking countries to rival Brazil's market.

A person familiar with talks, however, said the Sao Paulo exchange is indeed interested in joining MILA.

Earlier this year, Francis Stenning, general manager of the Lima Stock Exchange, said Mexico could join MILA by the first half of 2013. In December, the Mexican Stock Exchange signed a letter of intent with its counterparts in South America to join MILA. (Andina - South America News)

inPeru's London roadshow begins today with over 70 Peruvian representatives

inPeru Roadshow

The first inPeru roadshow will kick off Monday in London with the aim of bringing together government and business leaders to seize the investment potential of one of Latin America's fastest growing economies.

The Peruvian delegation consists of more than 70 representatives from public and private-sector associations, who seek to promote Peru as one of the most important centres in Latin America to attract international investment.

The three-day roadshow will begin this morning with meetings between Peruvian officials and investors from around the world.

In the afternoon, Luis Miguel Castilla, Peru's Minister of Economy and Finance; Julio Velarde, President of Peru's Central Reserve Bank (BCR), and Robert Hoyle, head of the inPerú nonprofit association, will give a press conference in London.

In the evening, Minister Luis Castilla, inPeru's executive president Roberto Hoyle, Peruvian ambassador to the UK Julio Munoz-Deacon, and the British ambassador in Lima James Dauris will attend a welcoming ceremony.

The event titled "Exporting Peru to the world" will be held on Tuesday, and includes the seminar "Peru: A unique investment opportunity in emerging markets."

The roadshow will end Wednesday with a bell-ringing ceremony at the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in honour of Peru. (Andina - South America News)

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Brazil's All-In Bet on Amazon Dams Jeopardizes Economic Growth


Jose Carlos Arara puts a tarnished 38-caliber revolver into his waistband. It’s a sweltering, mid- November morning in the Brazilian Amazon rain forest, and the 31-year-old Indian chief walks through the jungle to check on his tribe’s yuca crop.

Assassins are hunting Arara, police say, because he opposes plans to build the world’s third-largest hydroelectric dam across the Xingu River, 2,300 kilometers north of Sao Paulo. The Xingu flows halfway across the country from Brazil’s western grain belt to the heart of the Amazon, and the 116 members of his tribe, the Araras, depend on the river for fishing, transport and drinking water.

At the construction site of the Santo Antonio Dam in the western Amazon, towering cranes and turbines dwarf thousands of workers on the ground. Photographer: Andre Vieira/Bloomberg Markets via Bloomberg

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April 11 -- Brazil is investing billions to build 20 hydroelectric plants in the Amazon with power lines to faraway cities. The project will flood rainforests 107 times the size of Manhattan, displace thousands from their ancestral lands and send the country deeper into debt. Brazil's high-priced dam project is a featured story in the May issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine. (Source: Bloomberg)

Two armed policemen escort Arara whenever he leaves the 25,000-hectare (62,000-acre) Xingu Big Bend Arara Indian Reservation, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its May issue. The bodyguards don’t protect Arara inside the reservation, so he carries a gun.

“This dam has made it impossible to live a normal life,” he says. The dam -- called Belo Monte, which means Beautiful Hill in Portuguese -- will divert the Xingu, depriving the tribe of the waterway it needs to survive, Arara says. “So much sacrifice,” he says. “And for what?”

Dilma Rousseff, a Workers’ Party member who won Brazil’s presidency in 2010, says that the country needs more electricity and that the best way to get it is by damming rivers in the Amazon. Brazil’s gross domestic product grew 51 percent from 2002 to 2011.

Massive Buildup

And the country needs to increase generation by 55 percent by 2020 to keep up with demand, according to the government’s Energy Research Agency.

Rousseff has been working on a massive buildup of power plants since her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, named her energy minister in 2003. Now, Brazil is spending 167.4 billion reais ($93 billion) to build 20 hydroelectric plants in the Amazon, with power lines to faraway cities.

The projects would flood swaths of rain forest 107 times the size of Manhattan. The country has plans to build about 20 more dams in the Amazon.

“We are seeing the realization of a project of critical importance -- I would say strategic importance -- for Brazil: the return of investment in hydroelectric plants,” Rousseff said in July at Santo Antonio, a 2.5-kilometer-long (1.6-mile-long) dam rising above the Madeira River in the western Amazon. “A work of this size is what will guarantee energy for our country to continue to grow.”

World Cup

Big dams -- especially Belo Monte -- are at the center of a debate over Brazil’s quest to become a developed nation. Rousseff, following policy pushed by Lula, says the government’s role is to lead and bankroll economic development.

Brazil is financing 1.6 trillion reais for constructing dams and improving roads, railways, ports, oil rigs and refineries, as well as building stadiums for the 2014 World Cup and August 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.

“Brazil grew in the past, sure, but in a very unequal way,” Rousseff said at Santo Antonio. “We want a different kind of development, and this project is the fruit of that. It creates jobs and redistributes income.”

That policy pits the government against the communities that stand in the way of the dams -- and against those who want to protect the world’s largest rain forest from further damage. The conflict is inflamed because companies that were Rousseff’s biggest campaign contributors are doing the construction.

High Stakes

At stake is the health of Brazil’s economy -- one that investors worldwide have increased bets on since the start of Lula’s first term in 2003. The government is borrowing to finance all of the work, and federal debt soared 29 percent to 2.24 trillion reais from the end of 2008 to the end of 2011.

The annual deficit jumped 89 percent from 2008 to 2011, to 108 billion reais.

Until now, Brazil could afford the spending. But Brazil’s economic surge is abating; the government reported in March that GDP grew 2.7 percent in 2011 -- the second-lowest rate since 2003. Brazilian government local currency bonds yielded an average 10 percent as of March 12, five times more than the average cost of U.S. debt, which pays 2 percent to bondholders.

With the economy starting to slow as mega-spending on dams accelerates, Brazil’s decade-long boom may turn into a crawl.

“There are the major issues of how you fund it and the economic consequences,” says Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Center for International Development at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the Inter-American Development Bank. “It may lead to significant distortions in the economy.”

17-Story Concrete Wall

A visit to the Jirau hydroelectric plant site two hours up the Madeira from Santo Antonio shows the scale of Rousseff’s undertaking. On a mid-December morning, thousands of people work in 95-degree-Fahrenheit (35-degree-Celsius) heat in a trench carved across the river bed.

Flanked by berms of earth that keep the river out, they’re building a 17-story wall of concrete that will house dozens of electricity turbines big enough to drive a freight train through. Excavators as high as a three-story house fill dump trucks with boulders, near a crew of welders suspended beneath steel reinforcement bars 46 meters high.

Brazil is pouring money into big dams because they can generate electricity more cheaply and pollute less than plants fueled by natural gas or coal, says Mauricio Tolmasquim, president of Brazil’s Energy Research Agency.
“What matters is not the high cost of building hydroelectric plants, but that over the long run they’re cheaper than other forms of generation,” he says.

Sapping Funds

Scores of economists, engineers and biologists in Brazil disagree with that view. Dams such as Belo Monte, which will cost 25.8 billion reais, sap funds from needed repairs of crumbling roads and overcrowded railways and ports that slow the movement of Brazil’s people and goods, says Felipe Salto, an economist at Tendencias Consultoria Integrada in Sao Paulo.

“Are these energy projects the best way to invest in infrastructure in the 21st century?” asks Salto, who specializes in public finance. “How should development be promoted in a sustainable way? This government hasn’t really answered these questions.”

The mega-dam construction will do more harm than good to Brazil, according to a September 2009 report by an independent team of 40 economists, anthropologists, engineers and biologists. It will damage the environment, force thousands of people off their land and require increasing taxpayer subsidies, the report concluded.

Overhauling Existing Plants

Brazil could slash demand for electricity by overhauling existing power plants and distribution grids and building solar, sugar cane and wind plants, says Pedro Bara, an energy specialist for World Wildlife Fund Inc.’s office in Sao Paulo. Sugar cane-based power plants alone would generate as much electricity as three Belo Montes, he says.

Tolmasquim says the country is already taking those steps, but it also needs the dams.

Belo Monte is being built by a group of state-controlled power companies, with below-market-rate loans funded by the Treasury. Taxpayers will have to pay down the debt for decades, says Celio Bermann, a University of Sao Paulo engineering professor and specialist in hydroelectric plants who worked on the 2009 report.

“There are so many reasons why these dams just don’t make sense,” says Bermann, who says he and the other experts did their research for no compensation as a public service.

Sebastiao dos Santos has already paid a large price for the Belo Monte project: the loss of his home. Santos, 66, a farmer who lives along the Xingu, watched as giant earthmovers destroyed his land to make way for the dam’s access road.

Evicting Families

The owners of Belo Monte are evicting 5,000 families who live in the path of construction. Santos refuses to leave. One hot November evening, he leads his donkey past the pile of rubble that was once his home, walking deep into the jungle to the small tent where he sleeps. He vows to hold out.

“It doesn’t matter what I do anyway,” he says. “There is nothing that will stop this thing because there’s too much money in it.”

The construction companies ruining Santos’ farm helped finance Rousseff’s campaign. Five companies -- Grupo Andrade Gutierrez SA, Camargo Correa SA, Queiroz Galvao SA, Grupo OAS and Odebrecht SA -- gave 45 million reais to the Workers’ Party for Rousseff’s 2010 campaign, or a third of all contributions, Brazilian election records show.

Shortly after Rousseff’s election, on Feb. 18, 2011, Belo Monte’s owners signed a contract hiring the companies.

‘A Huge Profit’

The five companies and five smaller contractors will reap a total of 25.8 billion reais during seven years of construction. The builders aren’t interested in whether Belo Monte makes economic sense, Bermann says.
“All they care about is making back the money they put into the campaign at a huge profit,” Bermann says.

Gioconda Bretas, a spokeswoman for the Planning Ministry, says the Belo Monte contracts were bid competitively and transparently. No company has been accused of wrongdoing.

Andrade Gutierrez and Odebrecht, both based in Sao Paulo, said in statements that all of the campaign contributions were legal and that the companies did nothing improper. Camargo Correa, OAS and Queiroz Galvao declined to comment.

Jose Santos and his family say that regardless of which firms received the contracts, Belo Monte will wipe their farm and home right off the map.

After he checks the smooth, tan cacao fruit hanging from the green-and-white branches of his thin trees, Santos, 45, a wiry man with thickly calloused hands, walks down a broad ravine and looks up at a ridge above his orchard.

‘My Life’s Work’

“That’s how high the water will be, way up there,” Santos says. “All of this -- my land, my house, my life’s work -- will be taken by the water.”

Reservoirs behind the 20 new dams in the Amazon will flood a total of 6,376 square kilometers (2,462 square miles) of land, according to government data. The lakes will cover trees and underbrush with water, and as these decompose, they’ll produce methane, a gas that spurs global warming at 25 times the rate of carbon dioxide, according to the 2009 report on Belo Monte.

Belo Monte will destroy sections of the most biologically diverse rain forest on Earth, drying up breeding ground for rare tropical fish and turtles and flooding habitat for the endangered white-cheeked spider monkey, according to Berkeley, California-based International Rivers.

‘Huge Scale’

“We’re talking about devastation and human rights violations on a huge scale in an extremely fragile ecosystem,” says Zachary Hurwitz, the nongovernmental organization’s policy coordinator.

The Samuel Dam reservoir, in the Brazilian Amazon near Bolivia, shows how hydroelectric plants effectively produce methane factories. Iremar Ferreira, who runs a nonprofit group protesting construction of the Jirau and Santo Antonio dams, walks along the stagnant, mosquito-infested reservoir behind the dam, surveying the damage.

Rotting tree trunks stick out of the water all the way to the horizon, two decades after the dam was built.
“This is the nightmare that awaits us,” he says. “So much destruction for so little gain.”

Back on the banks of the Xingu River, Arara walks to a bluff and points to three women from his tribe washing clothes on flat rocks along the river bank. Children splash in the water under an intense sun. Two men paddle dugout canoes toward a cove where they fish for piranha with weighted nets.

Led Demonstrations

Once Belo Monte is finished, most of the river water will be diverted into the dam’s power turbines. Arara, a stocky man with an eloquence and charisma that belie his fourth-grade education, led demonstrations that spurred the federal government in 2008 to set aside protected land for his tribe.

In 2011, police told Arara that his efforts could cost him his life. They said paid assassins they couldn’t identify were seeking to find him when he left his reservation.

“Some people want me dead, and around here, that’s no joke,” Arara says.

A few kilometers away from Arara’s reservation, bulldozers are knocking down the 20-meter-high jungle canopy to clear a main access route for trucks, workers and equipment to build Belo Monte. Engineers plan a 7,100-meter-long dam that will hold back a reservoir covering jungle, farms and villages.

The dam will channel the Xingu into a man-made canal stretching 20 kilometers through what once were cattle ranches, farms and homes, leading to another dam. The project will flood 503 square kilometers.

Big Bend

When Belo Monte is completed in 2019, it will be capable of generating 11,233 megawatts of energy, enough to light 18 million homes. It will generate only a third of capacity on average because of swings in river levels.
Hundreds of people are spread along the 100-kilometer stretch of the Xingu that will be diverted, known as Big Bend, including the Arara and Juruna Indian tribes.

“How will we live?” Arara asks. “Everything we are about depends on this river.”

Some Amazon residents are losing their homes not to bulldozers or flooding but to another rising phenomenon: land grabbing. Because so much land will be destroyed by the dams, the tracts that remain, where displaced people will have to move, are rising in value.

Alenucia dos Santos lost her small wooden shack in June 2010 when a tattoo-covered man with a menacing stare visited her home late one night. He threatened to slash her to death with a machete if she didn’t give up her farm, according to federal prosecutors.

Moved to Slum

Four months later, the man said he’d shoot her, so Santos abandoned her home, moving to a slum reeking of sewage.

“They are criminals,” says Santos, 58, walking through the jungle to visit her former land, protected by a friend with a rifle. “I am terrified because anyone can kill you out here. I’ve lost what took me a lifetime to build.” (The three Santos families losing their homes are unrelated.)

Erwin Krautler, a Roman Catholic bishop in Altamira, the city closest to Belo Monte, says others, including himself, have received death threats because of the dam. The bishop says he’s in danger for challenging the construction. Two armed bodyguards now shadow him wherever he goes, as they did one Sunday in late November, after celebrating Mass.

‘Worst Dreams’

“Never in my worst dreams did I think Belo Monte would be approved because it’s so, so destructive,” says Krautler, 72, sitting near the altar in the Altamira Cathedral. His bodyguards watch the church door, handguns bulging under their T-shirts. “What rules here is money. The government is just steamrolling over people to get it done.”

Brazilian officials say they hear the complaints and are trying to lessen environmental and community damage. Engineers designed Belo Monte, Jirau and Santo Antonio to use the smallest reservoirs possible to decrease flooding, the owners of the dams say.

Belo Monte’s owner, Norte Energia SA, a consortium controlled by state-owned power utilities, says it will pay a total of 3.2 billion reais to compensate people who lose homes and businesses.

That won’t be nearly enough to allow farmers to remain in the area, Krautler says. The cost of living has soared so much that families won’t be able to buy land or homes nearby, he says.

Heavy Lifters

On the western edge of the Amazon jungle, logging crews are gutting the rain forest in an attempt to diminish pollution, says Edson dos Santos, Santo Antonio’s engineering coordinator. Behind the Santo Antonio Dam, workers use heavy lifters to move giant logs from felled Brazilian walnut trees onto a truck.

“The plan is to remove as much of the jungle as possible to prevent methane from being generated,” Santos says. “We are going out of our way to lessen the impact.”

Santos walks by the base of the Santo Antonio Dam, inside a massive pit along the riverbed. Half the dam is finished, and river water roars though steel gates. He looks at the concrete rising above him, where 20,000 men and women work, often at night under spotlights, to finish the dam ahead of schedule.

“Look at this: It’s a marvelous project,” Santos says. “They’re giving us everything it takes to get it done fast.”
Two hours away, Alessandro Valente directs a crew of 15 men working on the wall of concrete reinforcing bars at the Jirau dam.

‘Something Brazil Needs’

“I know this is something Brazil needs, and no expense is being spared,” Valente says.
The rush to build means the dams cost far more than original estimates. Santo Antonio will cost 16 billion reais, 68 percent more than initial cost projections, according to the dam’s owners.

The companies building the Jirau Dam, France’s GDF Suez (GSZ) SA and Brazilian state company Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA (ELET6), boosted construction cost estimates to 12 billion reais, from 8.7 billion reais, after the government ordered more turbines added. Belo Monte’s owners have boosted cost estimates by 36 percent in three years, and the construction is just starting.

Brazilian taxpayers can only wait to see if Rousseff’s all- in bet on Amazon dams helps or hurts the nation. Arara, Krautler and thousands of others have already felt the damage. That’s why Arara risks his life to fight Belo Monte.

“The stakes are very high,” he says. “When the dam is built, the river will be gone, and so will our livelihood.”
What’s not clear is whether their loss will be an overall gain for Brazil’s economy -- or the start of a downward spiral of dislocation, debt and environmental devastation.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Smith in Santiago at Mssmith@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jonathan Neumann at jneumann2@bloomberg.net

Friday, April 6, 2012

Sobbing Chavez Pleads for Life at Catholic Mass in Home State

Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's president. Photographer:Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images 

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez wiped tears from his face as he pleaded for life in his fight against an undisclosed cancer at a Catholic mass in his home state of Barinas.

Chavez, speaking yesterday at the mass held for his health and broadcast on state television, said cancer is a “real threat” that takes many lives and that he has faith that he will win the fight against the disease.

Chavez, who returned April 4 from Cuba where he underwent a second round of radiation therapy, said he shed tears when he felt the hands of his parents, Hugo and Elena, touch him during the mass. His siblings also attended the service.

“If this was necessary, may it be welcome,” Chavez said, who wore a white T-shirt under a blue and white track suit. “But I ask God to give me life, however painful. I can carry 100 crosses, your crown of thorns, but don’t take me yet. I still have things to do.”

Chavez, who has undergone three operations as part of his treatment since June, will seek re-election in October in a bid to extend his 13-year rule until 2019. The government hasn’t disclosed any succession plans in case Chavez, 57, isn’t healthy enough to participate in the elections.

He may travel to Brazil for medical treatment after having a reaction to the radiation therapy, Merval Pereira, a columnist for O Globo newspaper reported yesterday, without saying where he got the information.

No Trip Planned

A spokeswoman at Venezuela’s Information Ministry, who isn’t authorized to comment, said Chavez didn’t have a trip to Brazil on his agenda.

Chavez is also having intestinal problems, which might be a sign the cancer is spreading, Pereira added.

Brazilian and Venezuelan doctors have clashed with Cubans on the medical team over whether radiation therapy is the appropriate treatment for Chavez, Nelson Bocaranda, a journalist who frequently reports developments on the president’s health in absence of details from the government, wrote yesterday on his blog. 

Chavez received a phone call from former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on April 3 in which the Venezuelan leader said he would like to visit Brazil soon to meet with Lula and President Dilma Rousseff, Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement sent by e-mail.

Chavez said on April 4 his body had no adverse reactions from the radiation treatment and that all tests showed his recovery was going well after arriving in Venezuela.

To contact the reporters on this story: Corina Pons in Caracas at crpons@bloomberg.net; Jose Orozco in Caracas at jorozco8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net

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