Venezuelan bonds rallied, pushing yields on its benchmark bonds to a seven-month low, after President Hugo Chavez said he is being treated for cancer in Cuba.
The yield on Venezuela’s dollar bonds due in 2027 fell 31 basis points, or 0.31 percentage point, to 12.74 percent at 4:25 p.m. in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price on the bonds rose 1.68 cents to 76.25 cents on the dollar.
Chavez’s announcement sparked speculation he may not seek re-election, opening the door for a new government that may reverse policies that made the country’s debt the riskiest in emerging markets. Chavez, in a videotaped message read yesterday from Havana, said he was recovering favorably after doctors removed a tumor in a second, previously undisclosed operation since arriving in Cuba on June 8. The self-declared 21st century socialist revolutionary gave no date for his return, saying only that his treatment “can’t be rushed.”
“The news lessens the probability that Chavez can stay in power for an indefinite period of time and increases the probability that you get more of a market friendly government in Venezuela,” said Bret Rosen, a Latin America debt strategist with Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “That said, the market may be underestimating what a potential transition could look like.”
Chavez’s nationalizations and currency controls have made Venezuela’s bonds the highest-yielding debt in JPMorgan’s benchmark EMBI+ index. The extra yield investors demand to own Venezuelan bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries shrank 37 basis points today to 1,013, according to JPMorgan.
A Finance Ministry official declined to comment.
‘Complementary Treatments’
Chavez, 56, said he remains in charge of his nation’s affairs from Cuba and is in constant contact with his cabinet, which immediately swore its allegiance to the convalescing leader. Still, with nobody in the government matching Chavez’s clout with the poor, his hold on power may be challenged by the opposition if he doesn’t return home soon, said Luis Vicente Leon, director of Caracas-based pollster Datanalisis.
Venezuelan state television aired a new video today dated June 29 that showed Chavez discussing government policies with his foreign minister, head of the army and older brother. In the 45-minute video, Chavez said he was focused on recovering from the operations.
Chavez, who plans to seek re-election for a third term next year, said in yesterday’s videotaped message that he continues to receive “complementary treatments” to kill the cancerous cells found by his doctors.
‘Weakened’
The prospect of Chavez’s prolonged absence could further embolden the opposition, which was strengthened after winning the majority of votes in congressional elections last September. Support for Chavez fell to near the lowest in eight years in March as a 40 percent devaluation of the bolivar and the fastest inflation among 78 countries tracked by Bloomberg erode the purchasing power of his working-class base.
“Even if Chavez returns to Caracas to resume his presidency, his candidacy has been weakened and with it the likelihood that his economic policies will be sustained,” said Jaime Valdivia, who helps manage $1.4 billion of emerging-market assets at Bluecrest Capital Management in New York. “The news of Chavez’s health is a definite game-changer.”
Venezuela is facing at least 16 investment dispute cases from nationalizations, including a pending decision with Exxon Mobil Corp. that may cost the country as much as $3.7 billion, according to Barclays Plc.
Debt Sales
Chavez, who imposed currency controls in 2003, has ramped up bond sales by the government and state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela to meet demand for U.S. currency. Venezuela, the largest oil producer in South America and a founding member of OPEC, depends on crude for 95 percent of export revenue.
PDVSA, as the state oil company is known, has issued $7.93 billion of debt this year after selling $4.6 billion of bonds in 2010. The government sold $3 billion of new securities last year.
PDVSA said that it re-opened a bond issue due in 2013 yesterday for $1.78 billion in a private placement with the central bank.
Bonds are rallying as the prospect for more nationalizations is reduced as Chavez rules from abroad, said Boris Segura, a Latin America strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc.
“This limbo is probably good for Venezuelan asset prices, Segura said in an interview in Caracas. “There’s a policy paralysis, which given the latest moves by the government, should be welcome in the sense that you shouldn’t expect anymore irrational policies to be enacted during this period.”
Daniel Cancel and Leon Lazaroff - Bloomberg
To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Cancel in Caracas at dcancel@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net